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  #1  
Old 08-14-2009, 05:07 AM
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Default Just a simple observation for bidding.

I'll run traffic to different offers and finally find something that profits. I bid one cent and everything is good.

Someone else stumbles upon that keyword/URL.

We go through a bidding war.

I win.

I'm now at 0.05 cents.

I notice that I get a metric shit ton of traffic one day and....

drop my cpv to 0.01 and see that nobody is bidding on that keyword/URL anymore so I'm getting a ton of traffic because my bid is high.

My conversions are still the same. I don't get "more" conversions just because I'm getting more traffic.

It's as if the quality of traffic degrades the higher I go with my bids when nobody is bidding on a target.


Lesson: Bidding higher for something that gives positive ROI doesn't always give you better results.

Any takers on this?
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Old 08-14-2009, 05:53 AM
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Absolutely agree. Its weird the way it works. And too often I've been like you bidding high to get to first place and then find a few days/weeks later that everyone else has dropped off and I'm up there bidding on my own. For that reason, I tend not to go too high anymore and I generally just stick with bids under 0.02 and wait for things to shake out.

Seems there is a lot more competition on TV these days but it seems to come and go. I'm not sure why. Maybe people are all enthusiastic when they start out and bid up high but then realize its harder than it first seems to make it all work.
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Old 08-14-2009, 07:41 AM
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DomainMachine - So you are saying that the act of excessive overbidding the top bid causes additional traffic? I haven't done any testing here to be able to say otherwise, but I would be very surprised if overbidding causes any additional traffic at all (and if it actually does, I would be very interested to learn why). I do agree that bidding higher doesn't always give better results - I often do what Espresso talks about and bottom-feed cheap. But I can't understand the pattern you're seeing.

Espresso - I am seeing the same thing with TV getting a lot more competitive lately. There seems to be a huge uptake in interest in CPV lately, probably in part from CPV Coach growing, in part from the Shoemoney blog, but also there just seems to be a growth in interest for whatever reason. I'm hoping it will eventually simmer down again.
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Old 08-14-2009, 09:10 AM
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DomainMachine - I've been thinking of some possible explanations for this. Some questions:

1. Can you replicate this behavior by increasing your bid again?
2. Is this a keyword or a URL?
3. Does the keyword/URL in question have an obvious type of offer (i.e. review site for X offer), or is it more open-ended?
4. Did the "metric shit ton of traffic" just start out of the blue one day, or is it just that you didn't notice before?
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Old 08-14-2009, 11:20 AM
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I see the same behavior on about 50% of my campaigns. I think this goes with what I mentioned in other thread about PTC sites. People only do PTC if the bid is high enough. From what I see there are aggregators that can somehow get the bidding info from CPV networks than display them on the PTC sites. If you want to make money then just sign into your PTC account and then click on the highest bid.
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Old 08-14-2009, 09:07 PM
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Here is one behavior I have seen:

I am bidding on a URL at say $0.05 and things are profitable and smooth. Then someone starts a large content campaign with display ads or media buy driving traffic to that domain, and while traffic skyrockets, the percentage converting and thus ROI tanks. What I think is happening is that there are a lot of mis-click coming to the URL, plus a lot of only casually interested/curious traffic. Especially if traffic was previously driven by targeted search, this new more casual traffic converts far worse. When this happens it can still be profitable, but I have to drop my bids way down.

Another thing that happens is I am bidding on a domain which is a PPC landing page for offer type X. Everything is profitable and smooth, but then another PPC landing page for offer Y is added to the same domain. Again, traffic soars and % converting tanks.
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  #7  
Old 08-15-2009, 10:43 PM
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Originally Posted by tero22 View Post
DomainMachine - I've been thinking of some possible explanations for this. Some questions:

1. Can you replicate this behavior by increasing your bid again?
2. Is this a keyword or a URL?
3. Does the keyword/URL in question have an obvious type of offer (i.e. review site for X offer), or is it more open-ended?
4. Did the "metric shit ton of traffic" just start out of the blue one day, or is it just that you didn't notice before?
1) Yes.
2) Both - however I can't prove it. I need to do more testing.
3) Not exactly sure but I'm thinking that it's both. I've only noticed with the keywords/URLs that give more traffic.
4) It's always been there but never gave it a lot of thought.

If anybody wants to try it, if you have a URL that has a 1 cent bid, bid 5 cents and see what happens.
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Old 08-15-2009, 10:46 PM
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Originally Posted by tero22 View Post
DomainMachine - So you are saying that the act of excessive overbidding the top bid causes additional traffic? I haven't done any testing here to be able to say otherwise, but I would be very surprised if overbidding causes any additional traffic at all (and if it actually does, I would be very interested to learn why). I do agree that bidding higher doesn't always give better results - I often do what Espresso talks about and bottom-feed cheap. But I can't understand the pattern you're seeing.
I can't vouch for how it works, but I do know that Zango for instance will send you traffic even though it's not exactly what you're bidding on. For instance, if you bid on "cars", you'll get something like "cars for sale" "cars-for-sale.com" traffic. (Something to that effect).

CPV isn't always targeted like people think. These networks try to pump up the traffic with some less than perfect targeting techniques.
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