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  #1  
Old 07-30-2009, 05:50 PM
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Default Has this ever happened to you?

So you find a converting keyword or URL and you're ecstatic. You realize that you have maybe 2 conversions and are bidding maybe 10 cents. You think "Well since this is working, I'll bump it up!". You then increase your big to 15 or 20 cents in hopes of doubling conversions at the cost of a slight drop in ROI.

You do so and end up not getting another conversion. You end up losing money.


Sound familiar? I've been noticing this trend since I signed up.
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Old 07-31-2009, 09:57 AM
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Default

I've seen similar things though I don't think that increasing the bid is necessarily a part of the story. I typically chalk it up to one of the following:

1. When doing demographic or complementary-product type product, sometimes the amount of visitors to the URL you target is just too small. Initially it was a great idea and converted well, but then that small pool got saturated and conversions plummeted.

2. Sometimes it is just random. In statistics we often talk about 95% confidence, but in CPV we are launching tons of campaigns/URLs, so even if you are 95% confident it is not chance, 1 in 20 successes may still be due to chance (and that is assuming you are 95% confident, more likely you haven't done the proper statistics, so quite a few more apparent successes may just be chance). If I can't find another explanation and haven't done the statistics, I would just accept chance as the explanation and move on.
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